How the Nepali state is functioning today depends on your outlook that was well entrenched before the onset of the global emergency. The international system may have proven to be a house of cards; we knew ours was one from the moment it was manufactured. That’s why we may be more resilient now.
The leadership rift in the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) in the midst of an international emergency becomes explicable, if not entirely palatable. Outrageous as the continuation of state-sanctioned corruption is, it is nevertheless understandable. Leaders who built a career in police lockups are more inured to lockdowns. Those who emerged from subterranean existence might not relish the return to distancing, but they are certainly capable of enduring it.
Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli has thrown the gauntlet. Unspoken but evident is his warning. This government will have to become more highhanded or simply hand over power to an institution that is innately so. NCP co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal must have a lot on his mind. A sweeping Oli clampdown could encompass a postponement of the NCP general convention scheduled for April next year – a major roadblock to Dahal’s quest to attain sole leadership of the party.
Dahal might have relied on the main opposition Nepali Congress to thwart Oli’s authoritarian instincts, but party president Sher Bahadur Deuba has been looking for his own excuse to put off that organization’s convention. The smaller parties are still too busy searching for relevance to make a difference. Individual leaders like Baburam Bhattarai and Kamal Thapa are speaking from all sides of their mouths to see if anything sticks in the public imagination. Critics contend the former monarch is playing politics with his till and tweets. They should cut him some slack: he is, after all, the most aggrieved party in our hopey-changey reverie.
Geopolitically, things should have been clearer, especially with the Chinese having come out on the top for the moment. The mandarins, however, seem to be in a dilemma of their own. While they recognize that ideological affinity hasn’t exactly bolstered trust and confidence between the two communist parties, they also realize that the monarchy has tended to take Chinese support for granted.
Ultimately, the Chinese must decide, preferably with the Indians. Even then, the immediate task for Beijing and New Delhi would be to assuage the diminished Americans and Europeans who have barely recouped their investments in Nepal.
Much of the country is left rooting for the military – out of choice or compulsion. Yet we forget – or are forced to overlook – the fact that the institution couldn’t handle things when they were far simpler circa 2005-2006. (If anything, the generals were consistent then. In their confidence, they egged on the king to take full executive power. When things got out of hand, they nudged him to step down.) Is the transfer of the supreme commandership to a president from a king supposed to make such a big difference?
